The Price of Knowing: Information or Illicit Gain? A six-figure payout for accurately predicting a former president’s public statements isn’t just clever forecasting; it’s a stark indicator of a deeper structural vulnerability Read More
The Illusion of Regulatory Arbitrage Crumbles The federal judge’s ruling against Kalshi in New York is more than a procedural setback; it’s a blunt declaration that the prediction market industry’s carefully constructed Read More
The Illusion of Information Markets The state of Illinois is not simply chasing tax revenue; it is drawing a clear line in the sand, directly challenging the regulatory framework that has allowed platforms like Kalshi Read More
The CFTC’s Digital Border Patrol The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is not merely closing a loophole; it is, perhaps unintentionally, affirming the structural relevance of the very offshore prediction markets it now seeks to Read More